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Will the spring property market survive?
Will the spring property market survive? 洛杉矶
By   Andrea Riquier
  • 都市报
  • Property Market
  • Mortgages
  • Loan Rates
Abstract: After five consecutive weeks of declines, mortgage rates rose this week, sending ripples of fear through an already faltering spring market.

According to Freddie Mac, rates on 30-year fixed-rated loans averaged 6.39 per cent for the week ending 20 April, up from 6.27 per cent last week.

 

For context, mortgage rates are currently lower than the 6.48 per cent they were at the start of the year. However, they are still much higher than the 5.11% enjoyed by homebuyers in the same week in 2022.

 

These ups and downs have sent many homebuyers into a panic, wondering whether it would be wise to buy now or wait. And this is just one of the many issues that are raising their blood pressure today.

 

To help homebuyers and sellers stay one step ahead of today's fast-moving spring housing market, in this issue of "How's the housing market this week?" in which we analyse the latest real estate statistics.

 

In addition to dealing with rising mortgage rates, homebuyers must also grapple with escalating home prices.

 

In March, the median listing price for a home was $424,000. And in the week ending April 15, listing prices were up 2.5 per cent from a year ago.

 

"Home prices are climbing, just as they usually do in the spring. However, momentum continues to fade," noted Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in her weekly analysis. In fact, this week's growth was the slowest she has seen since May 2020.

 

"Home prices," she predicts, "will likely rise month by month over the summer, as they usually do." But the jump will be smaller than what we'll see in 2022."

 

In other words, homebuyers will have to deal with slightly higher prices, but nothing worse than the runaway sticker shock they experienced last summer. That said, when you combine those prices with today's higher mortgage rates, the picture is still grim.

 

For those homebuyers making a 20 per cent down payment on a typical home, their monthly mortgage payment will now be $600 or more than last year.

 

"Home prices have stabilised somewhat, but with tight supply and interest rates stuck above 6 per cent, affordable housing remains a serious problem for many potential homebuyers," noted Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. "Unless interest rates fall into the five per cent range, demand will only moderately recover."

 Will the spring property market survive?

Despite homebuyers shelling out a few hundred extra dollars a month for a home, the pickings are slimmer than ever.

 

While housing inventory for the week ending April 15 was 44 per cent higher than a year ago, many of those listings are stale and have been on the market 16 days longer than a year ago. This means that homebuyers have likely seen and discarded many of these options.

 

Meanwhile, new listings just coming onto the market have been declining every week for the past 10 months, and continued to fall by 5% in the week ending April 15.

 

The reason so many homeowners are now reluctant to list their homes is that many are also buyers who don't want to trade in their current low-interest mortgages for today's high interest rates.

 

"Inventory will likely continue to be an issue with 82 per cent of those seeking to buy or sell feeling 'locked in' by their current low mortgage rates," Hale said.

 

What's more, she predicts this sentiment is "unlikely to change, with current mortgage rates more than 2 percentage points higher than what most homeowners are currently paying."

 

Ironically, these rising mortgage rates are taking a hit just in time for what is considered the best selling week of the entire year. data from Realtor.com shows that from April 16 to 22, homes typically make $8,400 more than a typical week.

 

However, unless mortgage rates fall, it will be difficult to convince homeowners to list their homes and make the most of this seasonal high.

 

However, there is one group of homeowners who are somewhat unaffected by changes in mortgage rates, which gives economists hope of getting the spring market going.

 

"Older seller-buyers, who may have smaller mortgage balances and greater equity, are less likely to report feeling locked in and more likely to report that they need to sell anyway," Hale noted." This could mean that older households will continue to play a prominent role on both sides of home sales transactions in 2023."

 

Let's also remember the reassuring words of Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®: "Calmer inflation means lower mortgage rates, eventually. Mortgage rates slipping below 6% looks likely by the end of the year."

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