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Are mortgage rates finally falling enough to revive the autumn housing market?
Sep 2, 2023
Are mortgage rates finally falling enough to revive the autumn housing market? Los Angeles
By   Margaret Heidenry
  • City News
  • Mortgage Rates
  • US Housing Market
  • Housing Market Analysis
Abstract: Mortgage rates have finally cooled off a bit after a shocking five-week streak of rising rates.

For the week ending 31 August, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was 7.18%, according to Freddie Mac. That's a welcome drop from last week's 22-year high of 7.23 percent, but rates are still high enough to discourage many homebuyers, as well as homeowners.

 

In her analysis, Hannah Jones, Economist Research Analyst at Realtor.com®, said, "Today's homebuyers are faced with still-high home prices, limited for-sale inventory, and mortgage rates that have been high for decades. At the same time, sellers are hesitant to sell because it means giving up lower mortgage rates in exchange for higher mortgage rates."

 

We'll explain in our latest edition of "How's the Housing Market This Week?" in which we explain what the latest property statistics mean for buyers and sellers as the unseasonably warm summer property season finally comes to an end, and what might happen in the autumn.

 

Until mortgage rates plummet, many homeowners may feel "locked in" to low mortgages, even if they are desperate to move. As a result, the housing market is experiencing a tightening of inventory, with few listings even being considered by buyers.

 

For the week ending 26 August, new listings were down 8.8% from a year ago, marking the 60th consecutive week of declines. Total home inventory, including new and used listings, was down 5.9 percent from a year ago.

 

The lack of listings has spurred home prices at a time when homebuyers are hoping for a little respite.

 

The median list price hovered at $435,000 in August. Despite annual declines in June and July, home prices stabilised in the week ending 26 August and are on par with the same week last year.

 

The tension between the demand for lower-priced homes and the lack of inventory has kept prices hovering near year-ago levels, Jones explained.

 Are mortgage rates finally falling enough to revive the autumn housing market?

Buyers looking for potential listings growth and reasonable prices can turn to newly constructed homes.

 

Builders are trying to provide buyers with options by accelerating new construction activity, Jones explained.

 

However, despite high mortgage rates, high home prices and limited choices, Jones said homebuyers still seem "eager" to close deals.

 

This is evidenced by the fact that the pace of home sales, which has been slowing for the past 58 weeks, is now showing signs of reversal.

 

Jones noted, "For more than a year, the average home has been on the market for longer than the same period a year ago. But the gap has generally narrowed this year."

 

In the week ending 26 August, the gap narrowed to just two days, compared to four days last week and six days the week before.

 

Jones says: "This gap could continue to narrow as we head into the housing market slowdown in 2022, and by the autumn we could even see homes selling at a faster rate than a year ago. If this happens, it could indicate that the market is finding a new normal where homes stay on the market for fewer days than they did before the pandemic, but longer than was common at the height of the housing frenzy."

 

Will the autumn housing market be a relief to homebuyers?

 

Homebuyers hoping for a flood of autumn listings should not hold their breath or expect a flood of listings anytime soon.

 

We expect the inventory of existing homes for sale to be down 5 per cent overall in 2023 compared to 2022," says Jones. However, she adds, "Even with some inventory growth this autumn, new listings are still more than 20% below typical pre-pandemic levels for this time of year. [This] could drive further price growth in the weeks ahead.

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Are mortgage rates finally falling enough to revive the autumn housing market?
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