During the COVID-19 pandemic, a national frenzy seemed to permeate the housing market as buyers spent previously unimaginable amounts of money on homes in almost every location. The real estate market was fairly homogeneous as the number of available homes dried up across the country and prices soared.
However, what is happening in the national housing market may no longer look like what is happening in local markets across the country. Some markets have slowed down as mortgage rates have risen, while others continue to accelerate. House prices may be falling in one city, but accelerating in another. Bidding wars may be fierce in one community, while homes are struggling to find buyers in the next. Once again, the real estate market is all about location.
"In the [early] pandemic, it didn't really matter where you were. Ali Wolf, chief economist at construction consultancy Zonda, said." With rising interest rates, higher inflation and much economic uncertainty, we are back to a very localised housing market. It depends on where you are to know if the market is doing well or if the market is slowing down.
"There is no national housing market," she continues." Every city and every street in the country has its own unique housing market."
There is, however, one big caveat. The housing shortage complicates the market because buyers are still willing to pay a premium for attractive, move-in ready homes in walkable neighbourhoods with good schools near major cities. It's the same whether it's a home in Austin, Texas, where prices have fallen, or a home in Miami, where prices are still rising year on year.
There simply aren't that many well-located, turnkey homes for sale, so when these properties do come along, the competition is fierce.
"No matter where you are, a good house is still a good house and it's still going to sell," says Wolfe.
Regardless of how localised housing is, there are still important regional trends. And housing restructuring has hit some parts of the country much harder than others.
Here's an example: the real estate markets in the Northeast, Midwest and Southeast, especially Florida, have held up the best, especially in smaller cities with lower prices.
"The Midwest is still full of affordable markets," says Selma Hepp, chief economist at real estate data firm CoreLogic." It's much more stable than these coastal markets, where you have a lot of volatility in home prices."
In more expensive parts of the country, such as the West, the housing market is weaker. Home sales in states such as California, Idaho, Nevada and Washington have been more affected by rising mortgage rates. Higher interest rates combined with high prices are causing buyers to reach their financial limits. Prices are leveling off or falling in some markets as something has to be done.
"Mortgage rates have made a huge difference: people have lost 30 per cent of their buying power," says Hepp.
In addition, many of the areas that experienced the biggest price increases during the pandemic, such as Austin and Phoenix, Texas, are already cooling off.
"In these places with the fastest price increases, we should expect some price corrections, not price collapses," said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. Multiple listing services cover the Mid-Atlantic region.
Even in a thriving metropolitan area, the strength of the local real estate market can depend on the exact location of buyers - all the way down to individual neighbourhoods or even blocks.
For example, Sturtevant says home prices have fallen in some large city centres, such as Philadelphia and Baltimore, which are typically the most expensive parts of the city. But outside the city limits in many suburbs, bidding wars continue.
Buyers who have been pushed out of urban centres may be turning to smaller cities or suburbs where commute times are short, there are busy main streets and good schools. Competition among buyers remains fierce as the land available for new homes in these towns is often limited. This has led to an increase in house prices, even though they may have fallen a little in the larger cities a few miles away.
Then there are the suburbs, the outer edge suburbs furthest from the big cities. Their future is even more uncertain.
In these areas, buyers of larger homes looking for more property can often find the cheapest real estate. This is likely to keep demand - and therefore prices - strong in these areas as homebuyers feel the financial pinch.
However, these are also the areas that were popular with investors during the pandemic. Today, many investors are not buying as much property.
Even within the same town, certain neighbourhoods may be more popular than others. Some offer homes on larger lots, others may be closer to town. There are also communities that are not considered trendy or offer fewer amenities. A home in a popular neighbourhood may receive 10 offers, while just a few blocks away, a property on the market may not receive a single one.
"It's good for homebuyers to be aware of national trends," says Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com®." However, these national trends may not align with the prices they are looking for and the homes they are looking for in their neighbourhoods."